SNOW THURSDAY FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
INLAND ELEVATED AREAS COULD BE IN FOR UPSIDE SURPRISES
SLEET & RAIN WILL FOLLOW AS WARM AIR MOVES NORTHWARD
The first accumulating snow of the season is looking to come a month earlier than average for some areas. Nonetheless the reality is that we will be cold enough thanks to a cold high to the north that will settle in Wednesday and Wednesday night. That high looks to hang on at least through the daytime Thursday keeping it cold enough for a burst of accumulating snow during the day.
Temperatures Thursday morning will be very cold and below freezing everywhere. Areas inland will be down in the upper teens and lower 20s Thursday morning so all surfaces will be cold to support accumulation. Weather models drive about a 1/2 inch or more of liquid from south to north. The first snow of the season forecast is always a shaky proposition for forecasters so there is an extra added bundle of nerves here.
JOE’S EARLY CALL SNOW FORECAST
I think that elevation is going to drive snow amounts in Northern New Jersey from Hunterdon County northward into the Northwestern Counties. Closer to the coast a slushy 1 to 2 inches seems doable. Temperatures are going to critical here so amounts could go up or down so expect some variability and some fluidness with this, probably more so than usual given the time of year.
Meanwhile we are seeing weather conditions improving now that the showers are done. The satellite shows we still have a lot of clouds to work through into tonight and the regional radar does show some scattered showers out to the west moving east. Those should dry up as they move eastward. Skies should start clearing out tonight and we should be mostly clear after midnight as temperatures head down into the upper 20s and lower 30s with a gusty wind developing.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Wednesday is going to a very cold day for the middle of November with ineffective sunshine and highs just in the upper 30s and lower 40s with a gusty wind. Then a very cold night follows Wednesday night.
SNOW ARRIVAL TIMES FOR THURSDAY
Regarding the arrival time of snow look for snow to arrive in Southeastern Pennsylvania around 9-10am, New York City arriving at about noon-1pm, and around 3-4pm in Hartford and in northern areas of the Lower Hudson Valley. The change over to sleet and/or rain should occur 4 to 6 hours after it starts.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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