OVERNIGHT RAINS ARE MOVING EAST, WEATHER IMPROVES THIS AFTERNOON
COLD WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY
COASTAL STORM SNOW SLEET ARRIVES THURSDAY
Overnight rain is tapering off and ending from west to east as we move through midday. Once the rain is done we will begin to see improving weather conditions with leftover clouds this afternoon and even some breaks of sunshine. Temperatures along the coast have risen into the 50s but now we will see colder air moving in tonight and for Wednesday and Thursday. This is going to set the table for another storm on Thursday coming up the East Coast. It is growing more likely that we will see some snow or sleet in the mix for almost all areas but especially for elevation driven areas inland. It is also appears that some accumulation could be on the table as well especially inland.
The western edge of the rain is advancing very quickly to the east on both the regional and local radars this morning. Low pressure is just offshore and will quickly move into the Gulf of Maine. We will be done with the rain or any precipitation until Thursday as the next storm revs up.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Cold air is going to be building in for Tonight through Thursday. By Wednesday morning we will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Wednesday will be a rather brisk and very cold day for this time of year with ineffective sunshine and highs just 40 to 45 at best. Wednesday night will be the coldest night of the season with clear skies for most of the night and north wind down the Hudson Valley.
Now begins the fun and torturous part of the forecast and that is Thursday as another coastal storm heads up the East Coast. This time around as the forecast low temperatures for Thursday morning indicate, we are going to be cold around here as we start the day in the teens and 20s. Low pressure will be moving up the coast while cold air and a cold high try to hold on.
Weather models particularly the European & the Nam are faster in bringing precipitation up the coast into the cold air as the high to the north gives way (which it will eventually). The concern then becomes for about a 4 to 6 hour period where it could snow hard or be a mix of snow & sleet. Throw the time of year into the mix and you have a very difficult forecast indeed. I do think that even coastal areas except perhaps right on the beaches (New Jersey shore east of the Garden State Parkway, immediate south shore of Long Island) will see a period of snow or mix precipitation. Areas in Northern New Jersey (north of Route 78) especially in elevation will likely see an accumulation and also in the Hudson Valley particularly north of Route 84 and in Connecticut north of Route 15 as well. As far as how much and given that this is the first one of the season for coastal areas I will defer to the model run. I will put up a snow map this afternoon with some early guesses (and I do mean guesses). Thursday night it will go to rain before it all comes to an end and weather conditions will improve in time for the weekend.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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