ELECTION DAY WARMER SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK DECREASED
DRY NICE WEATHER WEDNESDAY THURSDAY, MORE RAIN FRIDAY
We begin the day with lots of clouds and temperatures in the 50s in most areas. The Storm Prediction Center has reduced the severe weather threat on the northern end of forecast with marginal risk now only making it to areas south of 195 in New Jersey with a slight risk in the extreme southern part of New Jersey southward. The reason for this is if you look at the surface map below, we are still in an onshore flow and the warmer air and southwest winds have not materialized, at least not yet. This is going to cut back on the daytime heating and the marine layer which is a thunderstorm killer will not be able to get completely out of the way.
Meanwhile on the satellite and radar this morning clouds with showers and some heavier downpours are continuing to advance eastward but at least for the moment we have rain free conditions in our area. Showers will be moving into Eastern Pennsylvania later this morning and everywhere else during this afternoon.
For now local radars are rather quiet but they will be busy enough this afternoon. The shower threat should last about 3 to 4 hours this afternoon into the evening hours as the cold front moves from west to east.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Once the showers move offshore late this afternoon and this evening weather conditions improve and skies will clear out. Lows by morning will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wednesday looks nice and sunny with just some passing clouds. Highs will be in the 50s to near 60 Wednesday and mostly in the low to mid 50s on Thursday.
The next weather system will arrive on Friday as low pressure comes out of the Gulf States. A primary low heads up the Appalachians and the redevelops off the Delaware coast. This is another recipe for an onshore flow, raw chilly conditions and rain for Friday and Friday night. Temperatures on Friday will be just in the 40s with that northeast wind around the big high to the north. Weather conditions will improve over the weekend though it will be the beginning of cold air coming in. The table is being set for a very cold shot of air to come in next Tuesday and Wednesday.
The question that we face is whether a storm develops on an offshore frontal boundary and how close to the coast will it be. Could there be another round of rain Monday night into Tuesday before the cold air arrives? Could there also be some snow out of this? Well probably if there is it will be elevation driven and well inland of the coast. Cold will follow this with hard freezes up and down the East Coast Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. For November this is a very cold air mass.
An air mass like this in January would probably mean temperatures would be below zero in a large portion of the area shown above. This is going to record breaking for a lot of areas if this verifies. The cold air will last into next Friday morning before things moderate.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.