GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH SUNSHINE & TEMPS IN THE 40S
MORE SHOTS OF COLD AIR AHEAD
NOREASTER THREAT FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS
Gusty winds & sunshine make for chilly Sunday. Overnight showers are now offshore. Low pressure is strengthening east of Cape Cod and strong high pressure in Missouri are creating a tight pressure gradient across the area today. Winds will gust to 35 mph or more at times later this morning and this afternoon. Look for a fair amount of sunshine though as clouds thin out though some instability clouds will continue today north and west of the coast. Temperatures will be in the 40s and winds will make it feel like it is down in the 30s.
Showers on the radars this morning over Eastern Long Island and Southeastern New England are pulling away now as a low develops southeast of Cape Cod. Inland on the regional radar a few isolated snow showers are showing up in parts of upstate NY and Northern Pennsylvania. These should diminish as the day wears on.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Frost Advisories are up for tonight from Long Island and from Central and Southern New Jersey southward. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 20s to middle 30s but the frost will hinge on whether winds drop off during the overnight.
The week ahead brings quiet conditions. Monday we will see sunshine and highs back into the 50s. We will see the next cold front move through Tuesday with highs into the 60s. No showers or forecast as the front will be weak. This is followed by another cold shot for Wednesday through Friday with some sunshine each day with highs just into the 50s and chilly nights in the 30s. Wednesday and and Thursday night could see frosts and freezes again as the early cold pattern continues.
NOREASTER THERAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
Low pressure will be coming across the Gulf States on Thursday as high pressure builds into the Northeast US. The high heads out to the east and it seems as if the table is being set for low pressure to head up the East Coast next weekend in noreaster like fashion. Right now no weather issues are likely through Saturday other than arriving clouds.
A digging trough into the Ohio Valley is poised to lift that low from the Gulf States to the Carolinas to off the New Jersey coast next Sunday as a strengthening storm. However timing of all the upper air energy remains critical to the forecast. At least for the last several runs of the GFS we are seeing all the short wave troughs running around timing out almost perfectly. However flatter weaker looks show up on other models from overnight.
The GFS model is very bullish with its upper air scenario here as the Gulf Storm lifts northward while energy dives into the Upper Midwest as the driver for the southerly flow in the east and lifting the storm north to off the New Jersey coast. if this verifies you can look for noreaster conditions to develop next Saturday night and Sunday with a strengthening low up the coast. Again timing is key here. A slower system in the west could lead to a “flatter” looking upper air in the east driving a weaker low offshore per the European and Canadian models from overnight. At least we know what to look for and the forecast battle lies there for the next several days. Don’t expect much clarity about this until midweek.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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