MICHAEL SPREADING RAINS NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST HEAVY DOWNPOURS LATER TODAY
WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY COOL WEEKEND
Flash Flood Watch is posted for a vast majority of the area from Southeastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England including the Hudson Valley and Long Island. The watch includes New Jersey except for the two northwestern counties. We are looking at an approaching cold front from the west coming into a tropical air mass. To the south on the satellite loop you can see Tropical Storm Michael which this morning is moving out of Georgia and heading into South Carolina with gusty winds and heavy rains.
The regional radars of the Northeast and the Southeast show the two factors in play with the cold front producing downpours that have developed across Pennsylvania and upstate NY on the northeast view and the rains from Tropical Storm Michael on the southeast view. Both systems are in play for today and tonight.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Looking at the local radar we are beginning to see downpours increase in Eastern Pennsylvania and we should start to see downpours developing later this morning and then getting underway in most places this afternoon, though it might take a bit longer to get to areas east of NYC.
Both the front and Tropical Storm Michael will come into play overnight into Friday morning. The track of Michael will take it off the Virginia Delaware coast early Friday morning and the cold front lying right along the coast to the north and west of the track of Michael.
The push from the cold front is just enough to keep the heaviest rain to the south and keeping Michael from moving northward and closer to the coast. The front is going to enhance some of the rain on the northern edge of precipitation shield so the risk for flash flooding is there through the overnight until Michael exits to the east Friday morning.
The heaviest rainfall on the rainfall forecast map is in Southern New Jersey and points southward and also from Eastern Long Island to Southeastern New England. This should be mostly done by daybreak Friday morning and then it is breezy and cooler with sunshine developing. Temperatures Friday will settle in the upper 60s and lower 70s and then we head down into the 40s in many locations Saturday morning. There is also an upper air disturbance coming out of the midwest that will bring clouds and some passing showers Saturday morning. Then we will see clouds give way to some sunshine with temperatures just in the 50s to some lower 60s. Sunday morning it will be quite chilly with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. There might be some frost in the cold spots in the Hudson Valley.
Sunday looks like a nice day with sunshine with some afternoon high clouds and highs in the 50s to some lower 60s. We will be dealing with the next front and the chance for showers early next week. The overall pattern in the long range favors cooler than average temperatures overall and there is no sign of a return to the recent round of humid tropical conditions. Perhaps we have seen our last days of 80 degree highs.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.