HURRICANE FLORENCE UNDERGOING SHEARING
MOVEMENT CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
Look closely at the satellite loop below and Hurricane Florence at the far right is getting sheared which has caused some weakening. The hurricane has become distorted thanks to strong southwest winds aloft. On the southwestern edge you can see the western edge of the circulation center as the storm gets stretched out northeast southwest. To the west is a large upper low that is spinning away creating the shear conditions. This will likely cause continued weakening in the next day or 2. Weather models show the shear eventually relaxing as the upper low is forecast to get out of the way at which point strengthening is likely to resume.
WESTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL SATELLITE
The weakening is important because a weaker hurricane is more likely to move more westward and less northward. This obvious is key since the hurricane sits in a place where they rarely make tracks to the west and threaten the US. In fact since 1951 there have been 8 hurricane in that general area and none made the track west to the US East coast. Of course there is always a first time.
The map above is the European for next Tuesday. Assuming that Florence doesn’t recurve before the upper high builds, the upper high builds strongly around Hurricane Florence essentially cradling it and keeping it on a west northwest course. Unless that ridge is weaker it would force Florence to ride around the high. The European and Canadian are the strongest, the gfs a little weaker. The models are all close enough where confidence is growing on this solution. That said I want to see 3 things happen before concern for the East Coast would increase.
- Hurricane Florence survives the wind shear with the core of the storm basically intact.
- Florence misses the weakness in the ridge in the Atlantic and doesn’t recurve.
- The strength of the ridge off the East Coast builds as strongly as models suggest.
THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical or storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property