Bad Hair Weather Downpours Thunderstorm Risk Flash Flooding

Bad Hair Weather Downpours Thunderstorm Risk Flash Flooding

Bad Hair Weather Downpours Thunderstorm Risk Flash Flooding

Bad Hair Weather Downpours Thunderstorm Risk Flash Flooding

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY, LONG ISLAND, CONNECTICUT, NYC, MOST OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY & EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Bad Hair Weather Downpours Thunderstorm Risk Flash Flooding

The map above shows rainfall forecast amounts through Sunday evening 8pm. Locally heavy downpours could produce double these amounts while other areas could get less. Flash Flooding is a risk. Also IT WILL NOT RAIN STRAIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. There will be dry stretches and some will last longer than others. Timing those out will have to wait until tomorrow when we see how the radars set up.

We are seeing clouds to the northwest beginning to spread eastward. The frontal boundary that will be creating downpour issues is beginning to set up overhead. We have managed to squeeze out one more sunny day but the humidity is rising and clouds are marching in. Downpours are beginning to develop to the west across Pennsylvania but they are scattered in nature and most of the area will not be dealing with these this evening or the first part of tonight. We reached the upper 80s to near 90 today. At least we won’t be getting back to those levels for awhile.

EASTERN SATELLITE

storm free

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

Radars are beginning to pick up on some local downpour and thunderstorm development to the west and north. The steadier more clustered area of downpours will begin moving in during the early morning hours Saturday.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

storm free

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free

 

Trying to figure out who gets what when and and where regarding rain is going to be difficult. It would seem that areas from Central New Jersey to Southern New England and Long Island will see some late tonight and Saturday morning while South Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania stay mostly dry. Then more numerous downpours will develop area wide Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The atmosphere stabilizes at night meaning activity decreases only to fire up again on Sunday.

NAM MODEL RAIN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AUGUST 14, 2018

Bad Hair Weather Downpours Thunderstorm Risk Flash Flooding

Weather models are all over the place regarding the specifics of rainfall amounts. The NAM model above has the max amounts over Long Island and around NYC with pockets of 2-4 inches in other areas. Others are emphasizing heavier amounts inland and still others to the north of NYC. The bottom line is that there is the risk for 2 to 4 inches of rain over a large geographic area from Pennsylvania to Southern New England. Monday to me seems to have the potential to be a rather active day from the standpoint of heavy downpours. Tuesday more downpours are likely until the upper trough to the west finally moves out Wednesday of next week.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

 

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