Clouds Downpours Warm Humid Conditions Continue

Clouds Downpours Warm Humid Conditions Continue

Clouds Downpours Warm Humid Conditions Continue

Clouds Downpours Warm Humid Conditions Continue

We are seeing a few downpours moving through this morning in parts of the area as the transition to a warm humid flow continues. The band of rain that is playing through this morning will head northeastward into Upstate NY & New England. A weak warm front is moving along to the northeast.  Later today some isolated showers and thunderstorms could pop up and some of those could be on the strong side. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a risk for severe weather later today and into tonight for areas north and west of the coast.

Clouds Downpours Warm Humid Conditions Continue

I’m a bit skeptical of the severe weather risk today. Weather models are not all that particularly bullish on the idea for later this afternoon and evening . It would seem that the strongest threat would likely be from Northwest New Jersey west and north for any kind of thunderstorm development. For the coast the warm front and clouds will likely limit the daytime heating. We will revisit this later today and see if we get some sunshine to break out and how high into the 80s we can mange to get.

EASTERN SATELLITE

storm free

Satellite and radars show the showers this morning moving along to the northeast. There doesn’t seem to be anything especially heavy or strong in this band. The heaviest downpours are moving through Northeastern Pennsylvania and on up into the Catskills.

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

storm free

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free

With regards to any thunderstorms that could develop rain is the primary concern due to the saturated nature of the ground. Many areas from Eastern Pennsylvania across into New Jersey and the Hudson Valley have received a foot or more of rain in the last 10 days so flash flooding is a risk and so is river and stream flooding since waters are at very high levels at the moment so do pay attention to this in case heavy downpours develop. The threat is there for the next 4 days (including today) though obviously it doesn’t rain all the time. Daytime highs will be in the 80 with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s right into Saturday. We should see the threat for downpours diminish as each day passes and the upper trough to the west weakens.

GFS JET STREAM PATTERN SUNDAY AUGUST 5, 2018

Clouds Downpours Warm Humid Conditions Continue

It looks like we are going to be getting into some hot weather beginning on Sunday and this could last for a few days. An upper high will be building into the Southeastern US and this should at least reduce the amount of shower and thunderstorm activity and send temperatures into the 90s with relatively high humidity. It seems however that this upper high in the least, like the others of the spring and summer, will be rather short lived as another trough coming in from the northwest is likely to drop into the Eastern US next Tuesday. This brings a cold front through and it will limit the number of 90 degree days to just 2 to at most 3. There really is much change to the overall pattern that has dominated our weather for weeks. We do not see any of the troughs in the east setting us up for long duration rain events. However as long as we remain in warm humid air masses, any thunderstorm has the potential to create flash flooding issues.

 

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