European Model Opens Door Lets Snow Enter The Equation

European Model Opens Door Lets Snow Enter The Equation

 

European Model Opens Door Lets Snow Enter The Equation

European Model Opens Door Lets Snow Enter The Equation

Let us be up front about this. The European model has not done well this winter overall which means we need to look at this with the utmost skepticism and caution. However the European model does show how this could become a wet snow event for inland higher elevation areas and even a cheap thrill for coastal areas regarding the East Coast storm that is going to develop late Thursday and lasting into early Saturday. The map above shows the European cutting off the upper low at 500 mb (18,000 ft). If this happens and it is a big if…then yes you probably will see a change over to snow as cold air collapses with the strong upper air dynamics. This process begins Friday morning as the temperatures at 5000 feet begin to drop to below freezing.

EUROPEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING

European Model Opens Door Lets Snow Enter The Equation

By Friday afternoon virtually the entire area is sitting below the freezing line except the immediate coast and eventually all areas go below freezing late in the day. The European all has precipitation all day Friday into Friday night which of course you need if you are going to get any snow.

GFS MODEL FRIDAY MORNING 7AM UPPER AIR FORECAST

The GFS paints a different picture. While it has the upper low wrapped up even deeper than the European it has the surface low sitting near Boston which would put us on the northwest side. It then drops the low southward south of Long Island Friday afternoon but the cold push on the GFS is west and south of NYC as opposed to being virtually overhead. One of the problems with the GFS is that it takes a wrapped up primary low and holds on to it much longer than the other models.

GFS SURFACE MAP FRIDAY MORNING 7AM

EUROPEAN MODEL FRIDAY MARCH 2 7AM

Look at the positions of the surface low on both models and the huge difference in placement. The European has a full blown noreaster underway here with gales, coastal flooding and the chance for a change over to snow inland (and maybe even the coast). The GFS would have nothing like this until the low drops straight southward (highly unusual). It boils down to the block to the north and models are having a terrible time handling it. The block is super strong. It would seem that the GFS trying to move the low so far northward before dropping it south is unrealistic. As always with these things you hope that for once they would be on the same page but of course they aren’t. The best course of action from a forecast point of view is to continue with the idea of a noreaster and mention a chance for a change over to snow. Specifics are impossible at this point until we can determine if the European has the better idea. Broken clocks are right twice a day so perhaps the European model may have the opportunity of hitting midnight on time.

 

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