Snow Ice Rain Wednesday Much Colder Freeze Thursday Morning
Snow Ice Rain Wednesday Much Colder Freeze Thursday Morning Winter Storm Warning Northeast Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, Hudson Valley & Connecticut Along & North of Route 84
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM SW & CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ACROSS NE NEW JERSEY NYC, WESTCHESTER AND ROCKLAND COUNTY AND CONNECTICUT SOUTH OF ROUTE 84
Everything seems on course for a snow to ice to rain event for much of the area. The NAM model produces more than several hours of freezing rain just inland of the coast in the Lower Hudson Valley, Northwest New Jersey and into Northwestern Connecticut. Route 84 may wind up being the dividing line here regarding how far north the 32 degree line eventually gets because it is going to come to grinding halt somewhere. This afternoon’s NAM model update shows the front end thump of snow on the order of 1 to 4 inches in most places. There might be room for a little upside. Im not so sure im buying the surface low as far north as the model is showing. This could buy an extra hour or so of snow. Models also suggest reality may outperform based on the satellite and radar presentation at the moment. Clouds to the west with this system will be rolling in tonight with snow devleoping just after daybreak in Southern & Central New Jersey and in the Southeastern quarter of Pennsylvania.
Snow will be over the entire area by 10am and then begin changing to rain from south to north around noontime. Just north of NYC it will be freezing rain and sleet and that area extends west into Northern New Jersey and north into the Hudson Valley and Western Connecticut. By evening Route 84 will probably be the area where the freezing line gets to before it drops southward again tomorrow night as the rain ends.
NAM MODEL RAIN FALL
Precipitation totals (in lquid) will be from 1/2 an inch to an inch and a quarter and there could be some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will reach the 40s along the coast and that means what ever falls gets washed away. Inland it will get rather messy as that 32 degree line fights its way northward. Once this all pulls out Wednesday evening temperatures will fall into the 20s so any standing moisture is going to freeze up overnight into Thursday morning. Later Thursday some sunshine will be with us with highs in the 30s. Friday clouds roll in with highs in the 30s to near 40. Then milder air comes in for the weekend but it likely comes with the chance for some rain.
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