Snowy Wintry Pattern February Begins
Snowy Wintry Pattern February Begins
Todays’ weather system was yet another reminder of the biases that have carried through since late October. Weather systems continue to be reeled in westward at the last minute and are poorly handled by weather models as a whole. This time around it was another winner for snow lovers near the immediate coast with a couple of inches up and down the New Jersey coast and for Long Island and Coastal Connecticut it was a jackpot in some areas where 4 to 8 inches fell.
I’m wondering whether today’s system was one of those shots across the bow and a signal of what we may be dealing with going forward into February. The upper air pattern continues to evolve into a cold and wintry one at least for the next 2 weeks. No doubt the January “thaw” such as it was is now over and the overall trend going forward is colder than average with temperatures and i believe we will have ample opportunities for snow going forward. Remember that while weather patterns may not repeat exactly, they do tend to rhyme somewhat. Going forward for the next couple of weeks we will see weather fronts come through every couple of days and each one will afford the opportunity for a wave to develop on the front after it goes by. This could mean some snow. The first of these occurred this weekend. The second one is coming late Thursday into Friday morning.
GFS FORECAST FRIDAY FEBRUARY 2, 2018
Earlier runs from days ago had a more aggressive scenario here but models have been trending weaker as we get closer to event time. The issue here is that the wave develops pretty much overhead which limits any snowfall on the back side. Once this goes by, it turns very cold going into the weekend.
GFS UPPER AIR JET STREAM PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
Now comes the longer term pattern over the next 2 weeks which will be dominated by a trough in the east and a ridge in the west. As weather systems drop into the trough position in the East it will be a question of how strong each disturbance is or isn’t. The one that follows the system for this Thursday night will be one for Sunday night into Monday. Models show yet another system that will head our way later next Wednesday into Thursday. All indications are that this pattern we are going into will carry through at least through the first half of February.
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