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Weather Models Winter Pattern Flips Back Long Range

Weather Models Winter Pattern Flips Back Long Range

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Weather Models Winter Pattern Flips Back Long Range

Over the weekend, overnight, and then again this afternoon, long range weather models have been throwing out clues suggesting the winter pattern in the Eastern US will return after a 2 week hiatus. Evidence today continues to mount on most models that this indeed will be the case. Often times winter sets a primary pattern for what constitutes the first half with a pattern flip or relaxation for a few weeks followed by a flip back. It appears we are on the road to a flip back.

weather models winter weather pattern

The East Pacific Oscillation is forecast to turn negative at the end of the month and then accelerate downward. A negative EPO favors colder air into the Eastern US  and was strongly negative through much of December & January. Also forecast to go negative in a big way is the Arctic Oscillation beginning at the end of this month.

weather models winter weather pattern

Weather models seem to be responding to these changes by showing the jet stream pattern reverting back to a cold flow with an arctic connection developing from Northern Canada to the Eastern US.

GFS FORECAST 02/01/2018

weather models winter weather pattern

GFS FORECAST 02/06/2018

weather models winter weather pattern

Today’s models suggest the cold/warm pattern we are in now with fronts moving through every 3 or 4 days continues through next week followed by the upper air realignment. Remember that weather pattern changes are processes and not events so this will probably take while to play out. Ensembles are on the same page for the most part.

CLIMATE MODEL FORECAST FEB 5-12 2018

weather models winter weather pattern

Some longer range climate models are showing the same idea with a trough returning to the East by the second week of February and staying there right into March supporting the ideas of the shorter range (under 16 days) models beginning the weather pattern flip process. More on this in the coming days but it appears winter may be setting up for the  second act after the intermission is done.

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