OPHELIA BRITAIN IRELAND SCOTLAND NORWAY PREP FOR WIND & RAIN
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OPHELIA BRITAIN IRELAND SCOTLAND NORWAY
PREP FOR WIND & RAIN
Satellite loops this morning show Hurricane Ophelia with 100 mph winds has begun to move east northeastward and that should continue today and tonight. Weather models have been very consistent for days showing Ophelia turning northeastward and then northward and accelerating off the west coast of Europe. The current weather model tracks are all relatively consistent with Ophelia arriving Sunday night and Monday with the potential for strong winds and heavy rain. By Sunday Ophelia will be transitioning to a strong extratropical cyclone.
Other than a few odd tracks most model bring Ophelia over Western Ireland and then across Northern England & Scotland and then eventually to Norway. While remnants of tropical systems do impact this part of the world from time to time, the track from the south southwest is rather unusual. By the time Ophelia reaches the British Isles the area of gale force winds will have expanded considerably from what it is right now.
The GFS model which is on the western side of the model tracks shows 50 kt winds impacting Northwestern Ireland with a large area of gales to the west coast of England & Scotland late Sunday night into late Monday. The heaviest rains will likely be along and west of the track of the cyclone so at least from this standpoint much of the Islands may not experience that much rain if the track is just offshore. If it tracks further east then some heavy rains of 2-3 inches would become more likely. The European has a track further east and would support a stormier outcome. From Britain the next stop for the post tropical cyclone could be coastal Norway Monday night.
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