maria

Maria 120 mph Category 3 Nearing Turks & Caicos

Maria 120 mph Category 3 Nearing Turks & Caicos

 

Maria 120 mph Category 3 Nearing Turks & Caicos

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic west of Cabo Engano.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas

Hurricane Maria is back to being a major hurricane with top winds of 120 mph. Even though the central pressure hasn’t changed much today the reconissiance aircraft found large areas of 100 knot winds in all quadrants. Maria is seeing some impact from its trip over Puerto Rico and it can take a while for the core to get reestablished. The hurricane is nearing Turks & Caicos in the Southeastern Bahamas that got ravaged by Hurricane Irma just 2 weeks ago. The forecast track would take Maria just to the northeast of the islands but it will be a very close call.

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There has been no change in the forecast outlook for Maria going forward. It appears that Maria will turn northward over the weekend and remain far to the east of the US East coast. All weather models show Maria eventually getting kicked out to the northeast before threatening any land areas in the Eastern US.

maria

All of the global models and hurricane models show the same thing with the exception of the Canadian model which is showing a landfalling hurricane into North Carolina/Virginia coast but this is because it is weakening Jose way to fast. Jose stalled to our east creates a weakness for Maria to exit to the northeast and this is the direction we are leaning. The vast majority of the models showing an out to sea track gives us confidence.

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