Jose Continues Northward Tropical Storm Watch
Jose Continues Northward Tropical Storm Watch
Looking at the satellite loop this morning we see Hurricane Jose moving northward and now close to the latitude where it is east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by well over 400 miles. Jose is looking less and less like a tropical cyclone and more and more like a non tropical or extra tropical cyclone but it still has a warm core and a small area of strong winds near the center. Either way it does not change the expectations we have regarding Jose so the forecast remains essentially the same. jose will produce moderate to strong noreaster conditions for the immediate coast with rain and wind. Inland the results will be far less and relatively easy to manage. Tropical Storm Watches continue for the immediate coast only.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook
* Delaware Bay South
* East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth
* Block Island
* Martha’s Vineyard
At least for today we will see not much in the way of issues. Morning low clouds and fog will burn off to some sunshine though the satellite loop does show clouds from Jose coming up from the south. Temperatures today will be in the 70s as the wind begins to freshen from the east. As far as the forecast for Jose and its impact I am making no changes going forward for Tuesday. Unless the track is tucked in to the coast, this will be a manageable situation for most of you with the strongest winds confined to immediate coast. Coastal flooding remains the biggest concern this week.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JOSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
Weather conditions will deteriorate late Monday as winds begin to increase along coastal areas. Some rain will probably swing northwestward from the southeast and push inland as an outer band moves through. Then there could be a break before steady rain comes in Tuesday night into Wednesday. Here is how it breaks down in general. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A DIRECT HIT BY A HURRICANE!
NEW JERSEY COASTAL AREAS
The worst conditions will be in New Jersey east of the Garden State Parkway southward from Monmouth County down to Cape May. Lesser issues north and west of here. Winds along the coast will be 20 to 35 mph with some gusts to 50 mph possible later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Coastal flooding will occur at high tide and right now we expect moderate coastal flooding as winds will eventually go around to the north and northwest pushing the water out. This is not a case where the system is making landfall from the southeast.
NYC, SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY (SOUTH OF 287) Southwest Connecticut
This area will lie on the edge of the stronger winds and heavier rain. Winds will be 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40-50 mph range at times. After the first band of rain Tuesday morning and a break, a second period of steadier rain and wind will occur into Wednesday morning. Again this is much like a noreaster. Coastal flooding at high tide is expected and it should be moderate in nature.
LONG ISLAND NASSAU COUNTY EAST TO RIVERHEAD
Here is where things get a bit rougher with heavier rain and stronger winds. The winds and rain will increase as you go eastward. 20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph possible on the Nassau County south shore. Coastal flooding at high tide is likely with an east to southeast wind eventually going northeast and then north or northwest during Wednesday.
LONG ISLAND RIVERHEAD EASTWARD TO MONTAUK & GREENPORT
This area seas the worst of it. The potential for several inches of rain exists with strong winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts possibly to 60 mph or more along the immediate coast. The worst of it will be Tuesday night into at least part of Wednesday. Coastal flooding is likely. Weather conditions here will be slow to improve and may not until later Wednesday.
NEW JERSEY WEST AND NORTH OF THE GSP & WEST & NORTH OF NYC, HUDSON VALLEY, AND CONNECTICUT NORTH OF I-95
This area should see the least of it though there will be rain and some wind, and it may get rather gusty at times, it should be manageable for the most part. Rainfall amounts here will be tapering off as you go further north and west. I don’t anticipate any unusual issues for this zone.
All the hurricane tracking models and global models engineer another clockwise loop just to our east. This will come as Jose is weakening so the impacts will be less. However with Jose looping in this area it will impact coastal flooding concerns for the rest of the week which are going to run high. We have a new moon as well as abnormally high tide with autumnal equinox this week. We will just have to watch and see what happens but certainly moderate coastal flooding is likely.