Severe Weather Risk Thursday 07272017
Severe Weather Risk Thursday 07272017
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a large risk of severe weather for Thursday July 27th for a large portion of the Middle Atlantic, Northeast and Midwest with a rather large area of slight risk indicated for our region from Southern New Jersey & Eastern Pennsylvania across the Hudson Valley, the western half of Long Island and Southwest Connecticut. Models overnight are indicating some scattered thunderstorms for the area Thursday evening as a cold front approaches. It is what happens afterwards that will effect our weather for Friday and Saturday. The front stalls out and low pressure develops to our south which mean an onshore flow from the east and the likelihood of rain developing Friday.
Overnight runs of the GFS and NAM are in close agreement with this idea. The strong moist Atlantic flow is likely to produce extensive heavy rains over much of the area. You usually don’t see waves this strong this time of year and I want to respect the dynamics that are being produced by this. At the same time I want to acknowledge the variation in rainfall amounts that are likely to occur with the chance for thunderstorms in the mix as well. A 1 to 3 inch rainfall area wide seems reasonable here though the NAM model is even more bullish with rainfall amounts through Saturday morning in Central & Southern New Jersey & Eastern Pennsylvania.
We will have no issues today other than clouds that are likely to bank up west of the coast. For coastal areas enough dry air from New England should give us no worse than partly sunny skies while it might be mostly cloudy inland in Western New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania in the Hudson Valley west of the Hudson River. Temperatures will likely reach the mid to upper 70s in most areas except perhaps near 80 in South Jersey. Thursday look for a mix of sun and clouds to gradually give way to more clouds as highs reach into the 80s. Then once the low begins to develop Friday and rain develops temperatures are likely to settle into the upper 60s and lower 70s or even lower Friday night into Saturday morning. Weather conditions should begin to improve on Saturday from west to east. Sunday looks mostly sunny and cool at this point with most highs in the 70s.
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