Severe Weather Risk Late Today New Jersey Especially Central & South
Severe Weather Risk Late Today New Jersey
Especially Central & South
The live severe weather risk graphic below has the real time radar echos behind it and they are actually quite impressive thunderstorms rolling through the Ohio Valley this morning and swinging eastward. The area of risk lies in an east west band from New Jersey south the Virginia and the west across almost all of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. I think the greatest risk for Eastern Pennsylvania, Central & South Jersey will be late this afternoon and evening while for North Jersey, NYC & Long Island it may be more toward evening and the first part of tonight.
There is nothing on the radar close by this morning so we should be fine at least into early afternoon. Sunshine covers the area at the moment and it will be another rather hot day with temperatures making a run for 90 degrees in most areas this afternoon.
Using short range models lately has been an exercise in frustration as they have been incredibly unreliable The HRRR model this morning in its latest run seems to make sense in terms of the timing of thunderstorms though I suspect the “where” part of the equation will likely morph and change some.
HRRR MODEL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT 7PM-MIDNIGHT CLICK TO ANIMATE
Sunday day side may be mostly dry with clouds and some breaks of sunshine. An onshore flow will likely keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s with coastal areas in the upper 70s to around 80. With a little luck showers and thunderstorms will be widely scattered during the day. It does seem like they could become more numerous at night. Monday looks warm and humid with the risk for thunderstorms again. Highs will be in the 80s
TUESDAY 7/25/2017 FORECAST HIGHS
WEDNESDAY 7/26/2017 FORECAST HIGHS
Real relief arrives on Tuesday after the next cold front goes by Monday night. Clouds early should give way to sunshine. Humidity will drop off for a couple for days as will the temperatures. Temperatures in many areas Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s for daytime highs.
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