Summer Heat Relief Close By Long Range
Summer Heat Relief Close By Long Range
We are in the hottest part of the summer which is usually from mid July to early August. Average temperatures peak during this 3 week period and our weather seem to be playing out this way. The upper air pattern has been pretty much the same except that the jet stream has pulled up just far enough north to bring heat and humidity to much of the southern areas of the Northeast & Middle Atlantic states. The flexing of that jet stream further south will bring shreds of relief to the heat so as not to make it 90 degrees continuously and the occasional breaks in the humidity will come with it.
SUMMER HEAT EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL SATURDAY 7/22/2017
The European model run today shows this occasional flexing of the jet stream. The first comes on Saturday where we could see the humidity levels drop slightly and temperatures ease a bit, though it will still hit upper 80s to near 90 degrees. A stronger shortwave trough will attempt to move through on Monday so as it approaches we could see some showers and thunderstorms with that. There should be a stronger shot of relief later Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
SUMMER HEAT EUROPEAN MODEL JET STREAM PATTERN MONDAY JULY 24 2017
This really is a continuation of the same pattern we have been in for weeks. There appears to be no sign of a change in the signature pattern of a trough in the Eastern US and the ridge in the west. If this pattern continues to hold into August we may begin to see more robust cooler air masses dropping down into the Great Lakes & Northeast. Of course there is no guarantee that it will stay the same and there is nothing that says that the ridge could shift to the East Coast in August. For now the trend remains your friend in the forecast world and there is no reason to change the outlook until proven otherwise.
SUMMER HEAT GFS MODEL JET STREAM AUGUST 4TH 2017
The GFS model which takes us out to the end of the second week in the long range suggests that the ridge in the west gets stronger which may lead to a deeper trough in the east. One of the things that we will need to begin paying more attention to is the position of that trough and whether it comes along at a time when a tropical storm or hurricane is running around. That will come under increasing scrutiny as we head into August & September.
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