Rain Moving Northward Next 2 Days
Rain Moving Northward Next 2 Days
We managed a nice Sunday with only some high clouds that came in during the mid to late afternoon. Now we look southward as low pressure in the Southeast US meanders to the coast over the next 36 hours and then moves northward. Monday we will see clouds increasing and thickening up however the rain looks like it will come in 2 bursts. The first batch is shown on the HRRR model for Monday
RAIN MOVING NORTH HRRR MODEL MONDAY MORNING
If the HRRR model is to be believed the first burst will be into Southern New Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania Monday morning however models that go beyond this time frame have this area of rain weakening as it moves northward. Some of will survive and there could be some light rain around the NYC Northern New Jersey Long Island Southern Connecticut area by late afternoon. Once that goes by, we may just transition over to some light rain or drizzle Monday night thanks to an onshore flow increasing with winds and moisture from off the ocean.
The satellite loop this evening shows a well defined upper air system back through the Tennessee Valley that is not making much eastward progress at the moment. This is producing heavy rains across much of the Tennesse Valley into Virginia and Western North Carolina this evening. Our regional radar is showing that rain trying to move northward toward Maryland and Delaware.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Weather models are showing a second heavier burst of rain for later Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper air system moves northward. Today’s weather models have grown a little more bullish with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in most areas before the rain pulls out early Wednesday morning.
RAIN MOVING NORTH GFS MODEL TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST
RAIN MOVING NORTH NAM MODEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NAM models show the heaviest rains Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night and then the low slowly begins to pull away on Wednesday though there could still be leftover clouds and showers. The warm up for late next week remains on course though again there may be some complications as we move toward the weekend.
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