Snow Chances Going Forward
Snow Chances Going Forward
One of the many lessons from a storm like this is that the long range doesn’t always show these things. This storm burst on the scence over the last 5 days or so and once again of all the models, the NAM performed the best and led the way followed by the RGEM which did quiet well showing the nature of the cyclone and where the heaviest snow would fall. Other models seem to be in catch up model Now there are some chances going forward. The first is Friday night into Saturday morning as a warm front sets up to our south and an area of snow breaks out ahead of it.
This has the potential to produce a coating to an inch or two from Northern New Jersey to Southern New England and Long Island. For New Jersey I would cover for areas north of Route 78. After this the next chance may be late Sunday or Sunday night.
The second one on Sunday is a bit more complex. In some way it looks like what we just went through. However there are some notable differences here. We have a wave moving across Virginia and headed off the Maryland coast. Weather models handle this is all sorts of ways including the European model which bombs this into a major storm near Cape Cod on Monday. All of this is occuring with a crashing North Atlantic Oscillaion which favors a southern track. Models seem to be trending this way. However there are also issues regarding cold air and if there would be enough to cause and issue. The strengthening blocking pattern has me intrigued so I will be watching. For now lets focus on the warm front tomorrow night that looks minor and lets see what the next run of the NAM tonight has to say for itself. The longer term pattern looks active and blocky so don’t be surprised if we get more chances in the next few weeks.
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