Snow Forecast For Friday Coating-2″
Snow Forecast For Friday Coating-2″ ConfIdence Low
Weather models this afternoon haven’t changed too much from yesterday showing a period of snow with the first of 2 waves moving up the east coast. The track for the first system is far enough offshore to prevent major issues but close enough that we could see a cheap thrill coating to 2 inches with highest amounts to the south and east. This would cover the period from midnight Friday to noon Friday. I think that Southern New Jersey south of RT 195 could see 1 to 2 inches in some places while areas north of Route 80 in New Jersey and north of I-95 in Southeast NY and Connecticut will see a coating to maybe an inch. These small systems can sometimes locally produce surprises so we want to be on the lookout for this possibility.
With regards to the second system, the European and Canadian models are to the left of the GFS model and would argue for an additional few inches along the coast with Coastal New Jersey and Eastern Long Island getting more than everyone else.
SNOW FORECAST SATURDAY WITH SECOND SYSTEM
From here we will watch model trends. The European seemed to be a shade to the left of the prior runs. That doesn’t mean that it can’t go right. We will have to wait until we get into the short range to see how those models handle this since they typically handle these systems a bit better than the global models. For now these are early calls and confidence is low.
The Canadian model and the European model are very close to each other on this run and you can see how close it is. Only a slight shift to the left could double amounts on the coast or cut them in half if it goes a little right.
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