long range weather models

Long Range Weather Models Trending Colder

Long Range Weather Models Trending Colder

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Long Range Weather Models Trending Colder

Long Range Weather models have been trending colder over the last several days and the trend continues today beyond the day 7 time frame. Now by colder let me be clear. It would be colder than average. Average during the first week of December is middle to upper 40s. Keep this in perspective please. 5 degrees below average is a significant departure and it still means temperatures by day above 40.  Also I can’t for the life of me understand the absolute impatience some people seem to have for their love of cold or snow. It is December 1st  and they are already tying nooses around their necks. Can we get real please and grow up a little? Nothing has changed in my view regarding my original forecast for a winter with slightly below average temperatures and near average snowfall except for above average snowfall north and west. I have not seen anything that requires me to change my mind.

Long Range Weather Models European Temperature Anomaly Click to Animate

long range weather models

That said lets look at the European weather model beginning next week and taking us through a week from Sunday. Notice the gradual spreading of below average temperatures not only across the Northeast but throughout much of Canada. The GFS is pretty much along the same lines

Long Range Weather Models GFS Temperature Anomaly Click to Animate

long range weather models

We wrote early on our JOESTRADAMUS post on the bi-polar nature of the models. What I mean by that are the huge flips back and forth in all directions. The European model has been particularly guilty of this. It has flipped again this afternoon putting a blizzard in the upper midwest back on the table! The GFS says nothing of the sort.

long range weather models

 long range weather models

The big problem I believe is how models are handling both the trough in the west and the system in the southwest. Nothing is going to be resolved here tonight so we watch and wait going forward.

 

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