weather models

Weather Models Continue Volatility

Weather Models Continue Volatility

weather app

Weather Models Continue Volatility

As we watch run after run of models go in different directions, we have yet again another adventure being set up late this afternoon. I know a lot of meteorologists don’t like to use the mid cycle runs. I on the other hand find them rather useful in catching changes that might be happening. Also I would suggest that models in the long range will throw out several ideas on how the long range plays before ultimately settling on what ever it is going to be when we get into the short range. That said we have today’s mid cycle GFS run going in a couple of different directions tonight.

euro216 gfs216 gfs210

Above we have the European and the last 2 gfs model runs for the same time frame. Now I would point out that the European had a major storm in the Upper Midwest for next Monday. That is not happening apparently. Now it it has gone to a major storm over the Michigan Upper Peninsula. The GFS which had no major storm in the Upper Midwest for next Monday but had something later in the week further west has been more consistent but even that is a bit of a stretch. I think several things are happening here.

weather models

When we look at all the long range indices two of them are at a bit of an extreme. The North Atlantic Oscillation remains sharply negative and is forecast to rise toward neutral late in the period. The Pacific North America Pattern index is forecast to go off the wall extreme negative. These indices are pointing to, in my view, extreme model volatility. The late cycle gfs model run wants to go all wintry again beyond day 10 as cold air basically takes over all of Canada. This goes back to a solution the model showed back on Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, the GFS now wants to bring out a weak system from the Western Gulf to the east coast and suddenly has some precipitation here Sunday night into Monday though it is very light.

WEATHER MODEL VOLATILITY CLICK TO ANIMATE

weather models

Clearly there is so much going on in the upper atmosphere making models highly unstable. We will now punt to the next set of runs. I will say that given that we are seeing weather systems with more frequency, the state of the upper atmosphere suggests to me we have a rather wild ride ahead of us.

 

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