Thanksgiving Week Weather Outlook
Thanksgiving Week Weather Outlook
Blocking Pattern Will Be Pivitol Going Forward
Now that we can pretty much say that the pattern change process is happening, we can begin to see the large impact the negative North American Oscillation is going to have over the next several weeks. To review the North Atlantic Oscillation measures changes in pressures in the north Atlantic. When the pressures in the North Atlantic are low (positive NAO), cold air tends to stay in the northern latitudes. When pressures are high (negative NAO) cold air is displaced southward usually impacting the Eastern United States the strongest. We are seeing the NAO crashing negative over the weekend and all of next week. This shifts the main jet stream much further south and much further south than we have seen in a very long time. The NAO has been virtually absent over the last 4 winters but it appears to be making a comeback for the start of this Winter season.
We are going to focus strickly on the NAO here and not ther other indexes. It would seem to me that the NAO is really going to be the dominate player next week and overpower the others due to the strong negative readings being generated.
Im going to use the European model here because it highlights the issue going forward. The weekend storm system that moves across to New Brunswick Canada is taking longer and longer on all the weather models. Even the GFS model is showing this trend though it is not as far west as the European or the Canadian. This is very important because that upper low not getting out of the way will keep things colder longer in the northeast next week. It will also force the next system to be further south than advertised. It also might be weaker than forecast as well.
The European takes the next system out from the Southern Plains northeastward. The primary low here goes well to the north but it weakens as the secondary forms in the Carolina mountains on this run. High presssure goes out to Southeastern Canada but with all the energy being forced southeastward, the outcome is a coastal low on Thanksgiving day which means a chilly soaking rain possible for our area.
Clearly in this scenario cold air is going to be lacking so this is a rain event but it could be a mix or snow event for areas well north. The GFS model is not that different except that since it pulls the lead system from this weekend out faster it holds on to the primary longer and moves it across upstate NY to coastal New England. If the European and Canadian model are correct, then the tracks will be further south. If we were deeper into December something like this would certainly be problematic. For now we will watch and see how weather models change over the coming days and the weekend.
The hemispheric map above shows all too well what a mess the jet stream is in and how everything is displaced so far south of normal. At the very least it means that going forward we will have the potential for several storms which will alleviate the drought conditions should this play out. Eventually cold air will become more important in the weeks ahead and I would not at all be surprised to see something happen on the snow side at some point. Meanwhile the Thanksgiving week weather will be cold at least into Tuesday before temperatures moderate a bit but that will depend on what the upper air storm does to the east. Longer term out to day 16 on the GFS model, it looks like the blocking pattern continues.
All I can say is we have very interesting times ahead of us. In the meantime if you are travelling Tuesdya or Wednesday with 300 miles in any direction of our area you should have no weather issues as the weather should be dry Tuesday and Wednesday.
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