Hermine Impacts Outlook
TROPICAL STORM WATCH NEW JERSEY
Hermine To Impact East Coast Virginia to Southern New England
PRIORITY OF IMPACT
WINDS TO GALE FORCE
At this point I think there is enough out there for me to lay out what I think is important with this and what we need to emphasize. First off I think the biggest risk here is COASTAL FLOODING since all the models pretty much agree with the notion that Hermine in whatever form it is in, be it tropical storm or post tropical storm (nor’easter) or something in between will be moving to somewhere east of Delaware or Southern New Jersey and South of Long Island and sit out there beginning Sunday and lasting into the middle of next week. All the global weather models show this.
The maps above show storm surge forecast which include tide heights through Sunday afternoon for New Jersey. They indicate a surge of 3 feet up and down the New Jersey coast. This does not include the impact of waves. This will also be the first test for the many towns who built retaining walls at the beaches and for some towns who chose not to for reasons known to them.
The second issue down the list of priorities is wind. I think gale force winds along the immediate coast (on the beaches) are likely and gusts on the order of 40 to 50 mph are not impossible on and off into Tuesday. Just inland the wind will become much less of a factor.
The last priority in all this is rain where I think the impact at the moment looks to minimal. Even the most aggressive of the models keeps the heaviest rains of 4 inches or more well to the south. Other models show far less. So from the standpoint of rain, unless some band of rain comes in from off the ocean and sits over you for awhile, or unless this system decides to barrel northward into the coastline for some reason, I do not believe rain will be a big issue here.
Latest satellite loops show Hermine moving right along to the north northeast on schedule. As far as practical weather conditions are concerned, there are no problems today..sunshine nice dry with a breeze and highs in the 70s to near 80. No issues Saturday other than sunshine giving way to arriving clouds and highs in the 70s. Rain and wind will being to move into South Jersey Saturday night and spread northward up the coast during Sunday morning.
We will update this outlook as the day progresses and throughout the weekend.
Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.
It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.
Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.
Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!