Gaston Weakens Invest 99 L Weakens
Gaston Weakens Invest 99 L Weakens
Strong southwesterly shear is impacting Gaston as it has gone from being a hurricane to a tropical storm. Gaston has moved close to an upper low to the northwest of the storm which is producing southwest winds aloft and shearing off the cloud tops.
This will probably continue through Friday but over the weekend the shear will be gone and intensification will begin again. Gaston is likely to become a hurricane again. Either way, this storm will not impact land in the United States is will eventually recurve out to the north and northeast.
Meanwhile INVEST 99L has its own issues. The visible satellite picture late this afternoon shows the exposed weak low level circulation that remains separate from the main areas of thunderstorms. It doesn’t appear that this system will develop until it gets further west into the Western Bahamas or near Southern Florida. Models are all over the place with this. A weak circulation like this would argue for a more westward course into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Many of the hurricane model plots late this afternoon seem to be reflecting this idea by taking the low level center into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Now should this be the case it could argue for a stronger storm down the road. Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are near 90. Shear conditions are low. Global models llike the European and the GFS want to turn it northward off the west coast of Florida keeping the system weaker.
The GFS ENSEMBLES above keep the system relatively weak as it turns northward on the west coast of Florida. Ultimately track is key and that is dependent on the strength of the east west ridge across the Southern U.S. The GFS keeps this rather strong into early next week.
Of course all of this is meaningless if nothing winds up developing which is entirely possible. One thing we can say is that regardless of development, nothing happens here in the northeast as our weather remains tame and in late summer mode. Even if something were to develop, the upper air pattern is not the kind you would see with a storm moving up the east coast. That possibility seems to be off the table.
MENTION JOE CIOFFI AND GET A 5% DISCOUNT
Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.
It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.
Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.
Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!