Tropical Storm Fiona Forms
This afternoon the tropical depression has changed its look to where there is now a central core of convection. This means the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Fiona with top winds of 40 mph.
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 37.8W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 37.8 West. Fiona is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
With regards to my views on where this is going nothing has changed from my mid afternoon post.
There is a large weakness that is going to be developing in the Central Atlantic which opens an escape route for this tropical system to begin recurving well before it hits 55 west.
The other issue is an upper low in the high levels of the atmosphere in the Central Atlantic which will create strong shear and hostile conditions for the tropical depression or tropical storm once it gets there. In the meantime there is a day or two of strengthening possible before it reaches the more hostile environment.
The European model keeps the system weaker and therefore it responds to the low level easterlies that are present. This carries the system closer to 60 west by Monday. However there is a deep trough in the Eastern US Monday which would cause recurvature regardless.
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