Flash Flood Watch Tonight Into Friday
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Flash Flood Watch Tonight Into Friday
Extended Northward into NW New Jersey
Judging from the afternoon model runs it seems like a good bet that everyone is going to get at least 1 to 2 inches of rain including the rain starved areas of Northern New Jersey, Hudson Valley, Connecticut, and Long Island as well as Central New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania. Weather models are showing a rather strong upper air disturbance that is going to be lifting overhead. Low pressure passes by just to our south and a moisture rich southeast flow off the very warm Atlantic ocean should all come together nicely. The atmosphere is very tropical and unstable. Lapse rates in the atmosphere are pretty impressive. So I think at this point we watch the radars and see what happens.
There have been some severe thunderstorms developing ahead of the main area of rain and the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather through this evening into Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania with a slight risk of severe weather south of there into Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. Thunderstorms will be popping up later this afternoon and evening in some places.
The satellite loop shows a large area of moisture in the Ohio Valley moving northeast. Radars are showing a build up of heavy thunderstorms in Kentucky and West Virginia. Everything seems to be lining up nicely for a widespread rain producer.
Local and regional radar loops are likely to get busy in a few hours so pay attention in case warnings are issued in some areas with the convection that devlops. Then the main rain arrives in New Jersey before midnight and a little after that to the east.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH RADAR LOOPS
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WEATHER MODEL ANALYSIS
The GFS NAM and last night’s European Model line up close. The NAM 4KM is a little further south with this and has some 4 to 5 inch amounts across parts of North Central New Jersey into NYC and parts of Long Island. Note that in these situations the models will not get the exact locations of the heaviest rain correct.
This is the kind of set up where some big rainfall amounts can happen and I would not be surprised to see some local numbers over 3 inches. We will update the situation later this afternoon. It also appears that more rain is coming for Saturday night into Sunday. More on that later today as well.
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