Coastal Storm Offshore Early Next Week No Impact for Fathers Day Weekend
Models have been struggling with how the weather is going to evolve off the southeast coast of the United States over the weekend and early next week. Earlier this week the European was washing out the weekend as it keyed on low pressure developing off the coast and arcing back northwestward. However the model was keying on the wrong low. Now we have all the models keying on a strong upper low cutting off the southeast coast and then lifting northward and northeastward.
Coastal Storm Offshore Early Next Week GFS Model
Coastal Storm Offshore Early Next Week Canadian Model
Coastal Storm Offshore Early Next Week European Model
All three models have this system but the European is the most dynamic of the three. There are several variables at play here. First off is the question of tropical development out of this. This is strictly a cold core system and tropical development from cold core systems is not something that occurs overnight. Systems like this need to sit over warm ocean waters for at least several days to undergo a cold to warm core transition. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE THE CASE HERE. Also tropical storm development from cold to warm core transitions is rarely seen north of 35 degrees north latitude and certainly not in the month of June.
So what does that leave us with? Well it does leave us with a non tropical low that could develop into a gale center off the Middle Atlantic Coast.
Coastal Storm Offshore Early Next Week GFS Model Surface and Upper Air
Coastal Storm Offshore Early Next Week Canadian Surface and Upper Air
Coastal Storm Offshore Early Next Week European Surface and Upper Air
The European weather model is the most deep and the most developed and would imply gale force winds offshore the Middle Atlantic Coast. This model also sweeps rain back northwestward to as far north as Long Island and New Jersey Monday afternoon and evening. If this is the case it certainly puts an end to the idea that temperatures Monday could reach 90 obviously. The weaker gfs would suggest clouds would sweep in from off the ocean Monday but rain would not be an issue. I frankly am not sure how this is going to play in the Monday time frame but the upper air structure on all the models ejects this system out to the northeast so only the European would imply some coastal rain and maybe some wind this far north and nothing more.
Coastal Storm Offshore Early Next Week European Upper Air Tuesday
The development of another vortex moving across Eastern Canada and extending the westerlies across the Great Lakes and Northeast prevents this system from being a serious issue. We will of course monitor how models progress with this. For now lets just keep it in the back of our minds. There are no weather issues at all through Sunday regardless of what this system does.
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