Hurricane Season Starts Busy
BONNIE MOVING OFF NORTH CAROLINA..
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY?
June is normally a quiet month in the tropics however this one is certainly starting out differently. Leftover from May, the remnant low of Tropical Storm Bonnie has been meandering all week along the Carolinas. Today it regenerated into a tropical depression and there is a chance that Bonnie could briefly regain tropical storm status tonight as it moves away to the northeast. There is no impact on our weather here.
..BONNIE COMES BACK A LITTLE MORE... ...RAINS TO DECREASE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.4N 74.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie should move away from the coast of North Carolina tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and Bonnie could become a tropical storm again. Weakening is expected on Friday, and Bonnie is expected to again become a post-tropical low Friday night or Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
To the south we have disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Weather models continue to point to tropical development when the system reaches the northwest Caribbean and eventually the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night into Monday morning.
Hurricane Season Starts Busy GFS MONDAY
Hurricane Season Starts Busy GFS TUESDAY
The late afternoon GFS model run continues the trend of all the models in showing a developing low in the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm with a large area in the Central and Eastern Gulf in the low 80s and even some middle 80s along the western Florida coast.
Hurricane Season Starts Busy Gulf of Mexico Water Temperatures
The water temperatures and a favorable environment aloft I think suggest that tropical storm formation is going to occur. The National Hurricane Center raised the chance of tropical cyclone formation to 40 percent this afternoon on their latest outlook.
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