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Judging by latest model trends, it appears that the rain will not turn Pimlico into a soup bowl but it looks like the rain could last until race time giving little time for the track to dry out. Conditions will be rather raw and damp as well. This favors speed and Kentucky Derby Winner Nyquist should love the off going. Maybe sits off the lead a a bit and then takes off around the far turn. That seems to be the logical way to go. A few of the new shooters have a shot if things fall their way.
Preakness Mudders NAM 6PM SATURDAY
But back to the meteorology. This is the NAM surface map at 6pm Saturday and we have a rather wrapped up area of heavy rain that hangs back into Northern Maryland to about Baltimore. The HRRR model for the moment only goes out until 5am Saturday and at this point the rain is just getting underway.
Preakness Mudders HRRR MODEL 5AM SATURDAY
Needless to say the rains will be heavy in the Baltimore area with 1 to 2 inches of liquid forecast to fall. Now much of that rain is going to head our way for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Rainfall amounts on the NAM model. Nam precip shows 2 to 3 inch rainfalls if you want to believe it. Cut it in half and you are talking an inch to an inch an a half which seems pretty reasonable for some areas.
Preakness Mudders NAM RAINFALL FORECAST
Bottom line for the Preakness with a post time after 6pm the track will be sloppy or at best muddy. If you are betting Belmont it will be a track that goes from fast at the start to sloppy by days end.
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