Long Range Weather Models Aligned
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We have been getting hints of a short term pattern flip that will occur later next week. All long range weather models in their outlook line up unusually close to each other. That is pretty remarkable. Models are reacting to a strong Eastern Pacific Oscillation index which crashes off the wall negative as we turn the calendar from March to April.
Long Range Weather Models Aligned Teleconnection Indices
The strong negative East Pacific Oscillation creates a strong ridge in the northeast Pacific and drives a strong polar flow from north to south deep into the United States. The ensemble means of all three weather models show how in line they are for this to happen.
Long Range Weather Models Aligned Ensemble Forecasts
Now this means that below to much below normal temperatures will be impacting the United States for a few days at least. Now this cold shot will probably last no more than a few days before the trough pulls out to some degree. Also there is no indication at this point that there is any kind of storm threat in this time frame. The trough and how it sets up would probably not be favorable for any kind of snow here. As we stated yesterday that part of the equation is a short term issue and the setup would have to be absolutely perfect. We saw what just happened a few days ago when the atmosphere is less than perfect. Also note the other indicators above are not in favorable positions for snow anyway. I believe the main emphasis will be on the cold for a 3 or 4 day period from April 2nd through around April 5th. Based on what we see today, temperatures will average about 5 to 10 degrees below normal which says 40s to near 50 for daytime highs and nights in the 20s and lower 30s. Of course this is only a broad brush that is painting this picture at the moment. Some models are more aggressive with the cold than others. The European appears to be the most aggressive at this point. We will watch to see how this evolves over the next several days.
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