Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring
After careful examination of the weather models this afternoon, there really isn’t much that stands out to me in the longer term. Temperatures will be trending closer to normal or perhaps even go a little below for a few days. But beyond that even though many of the long range signals are bullish for something of consequence, there remains issue of having the upper air lined up differently.
First off let’s look at the super short range. Sunday we begin to cloud over. Weather models for days have been correctly showing a developing onshore flow on Sunday which will force 2 low pressure areas to pass to our south. This is going to keep us in a northeast to east flow of raw damp chilly (but not cold) air. This probably means temperatures Monday and Tuesday not much out of the 40s in most areas.
Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring NAM MODEL MONDAY & TUESDAY
Rainfall amounts from this should be on the order of an inch or so spread out over 2 days so I don’t think there will be any serious issues. We are also not in a full moon phase so tides should be manageable. Now beyond Tuesday the Euro model has another weak low on Thursday passing to our south.
Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring Euro Model Thursday
Being that there is no cold air to speak of this could amount to another period of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It really doesn’t look like anything other than a minor nuisance. However it does prolong the unsettled weather at least through midweek. Now beyond this period, this is what I mean about how just because the indices are pointing one way doesn’t necessarily mean anything when the atmosphere is lined up all wrong.
Weather Models Show Typical Early Spring Long Range Indices
The long range signals all this week coming up are pointing to a wintry look. However the upper air and surface are telling a different story. You can have all the signals screaming snowstorm but if it is just not there..it’s just not there. Here is the upper air forecast from the Euro model for a week from now.
Euro Model Upper Air
This upper air is very dynamic and it is all WRONG for the east. The trough is along or just west of 90 west. It would need to be much further east along 80 west. This takes a strong storm to the Great Lakes and a heavy rain and warmer temperatures ahead of it in the east next weekend. The Euro model has been showing this very consistently for the last 6 model runs. There is nothing that suggests otherwise to me and I would ignore the GFS model which has a surface low offshore about 1000 miles to the east of both the Euro model and the Canadian model. To me we are just in a more typical spring pattern for the next few weeks and there is nothing out there that suggests otherwise.
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