Euro Model Canadian Model Gfs Model Updates
With all the midday model runs done, it is becoming a little more apparent that some snow seems likely for much of the area Thursday night into Friday morning. That being said it is hard to get too worked up over this at this point for a number of reasons. For one, with regards to the blizzard and a couple of other events, in the days going into it, you could sense that something has happening. I just don’t seem to have the same feel for this given what is going on in the atmosphere. In the weather events we have seen all winter, it has been a matter of a last minute northward shift. In the case of the blizzard, it became a situation where the surface low wound up being tucked in along the coast as a deep intense system. This helped to shift the areas of heavy snow further west and north than they otherwise would have been.
Euro Model Canadian Model Gfs Model Updates Surface Maps Friday Morning
The surface maps for Friday morning are all up above. All three have some snow here that develops Thursday night and continues into Friday morning. All three show a surface low develop along the Carolina Coast. So it is safe to say that during Thursday night we will see some snow here. However the snow area is pretty far to the north from the surface low. The liquid equivalents of precipitation are on the light side and basically under a quarter of an inch.
The second issue is the structure of the upper air. The timing of all the energy does not line up to favor a heavy accumulation snow for any area. The surface low will be ejected east rather than northeast or north. This is because there is energy upstream that moves everything along. There is no room for the southern stream feature to lift northward along the coast. Instead it moves out and snow gradually tapers off during Friday morning on all three models.
Euro Model Canadian Model Gfs Model Updates UPPER AIR FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING
All three models are in agreement on this though they differ slightly when you look at the super detail. The bottom line is that unless the upper air trough is deeper and further west at the last minute (which is not impossible but not likely), I would think that anywhere from a coating to maybe a few inches are possible in some areas. Much of what falls between midnight and 7am will stick being that temperatures will be cold enough to support this. After sunrise as the sun angle comes into play, I would expect roads to clear up fairly quickly unless it were to snow hard. I would not forecast more than that at this point.
Euro Model Canadian Model Gfs Model Updates Model Snowfall Forecast Maps
Model snow maps show this idea with the NAM model perhaps being a little more robust with snowfall in some inland areas where elevation will probably enhance snowfall slightly. Again a last minute northwest shift can’t completely be discounted. The new NAM model is running at the moment and we will see whether it begins to show that possibility.
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