Snow Ice Rain Coming Monday
There are two things that are changing regarding the Monday-Wednesday event. Firstly is that the models late this afternoon are going a different way. A few days ago the European model showed that a second lobe of energy would be a player on Wednesday and has since backed off from that idea. This afternoon’s GFS has actually gone back to that idea showing a weak lead system and a stronger second one for Wednesday. We are going to have to wait for tonight’s models runs to see if this is a true trend. The NAM has been onto this idea for a number of runs and actually has snow arriving here on Monday.
Snow Ice Rain Coming Monday GFS and NAM model Monday night
At this point the precipitation has changed to rain and the NAM shows a serious ice storm inland for late Monday and Monday night. The weaker look for the lead system is because the upper air pattern for this is shown to be disorganized and not phased.
Snow Ice Rain Coming Monday GFS NAM and European Comparison
You can see the difference that the European shows verses the other models with a much stronger system in that southern branch of the jet stream tha winds up lifting northward from here. This would result in a deep storm up the Appalachians with a soaking rain, strong winds and coastal flooding possibilities.
If there is a system number 2 then system number on needs to be weak to allow for some room. The GFS has an impressive upper air system swinging through on Wednesday.
Snow Ice Rain Coming Monday GFS MAPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
At this point lets wait until tonight’s runs to see if the weaker look translates to the European model. In the meantime if the weaker solution becomes reality, I will be putting out snowfall forecast maps in the morning. My early guess for Monday off the top of my head would be a coating to a few inches from the coast to inland. North and West of route 80 in NJ and 287 in Southeast NY might see a few inches or a bit more before a change to ice and then rain. But again this is only an early guess
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