Rain Snow On Schedule
Everything is going according to plan with regards to the rain changing to snow for later tonight. What is unusual is the temperature profile when we look at the actual weather at 7pm this evening. At the surface the map looks like a map you might see in March. The air at the surface simply is not all that cold. However aloft it is and what needs to happen is that the cold air aloft works its way down to the surface. That will happen depending on the intensity of the precipitation that is moving in.
Rain Snow On Schedule 7PM Temperatures
The satellite loop and radar loops up and down the east coast show some rather impressive clouds and rain to the south. Models seem to be keying on this strongly and that there will be a lot of dynamic cooling later tonight. That is basically cooling the atmosphere vertically from the top down. All the numbers seem to say this is going to work. I only wish the temperatures were about 10 degrees colder to be sure. But you work with what you got and we will know soon enough how this will all translate as the rain should turn to snow after 2am in most areas.
RAIN SNOW ON SCHEDULE SATELLITE & RADAR LOOPS
With regards to my snowfall forecast it remains unchanged from this evening. The greatest risk for heavy wet snow is for Long Island and Coastal Connecticut where I have a band of 4 to 6 inches indicated. Lesser amounts to the west and north.
Rain Snow On Schedule Joe’s Snowfall Forecast
The other critical issue for the morning will be where the temperatures are sitting between 4am and 9am. There is a big difference between snow at 32 and snow at 34 or 35. Those one degree increments could make or break this forecast.
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