European Model Analysis
Tonight’s European run is pretty much like the other global models in that the track of the upper low is straight east northeast and offshore. Unfortunately there seems to be a problem in that I cannot see what it does with precipitation and snow. My guess is that it seems left of the GFS and more like the Canadian so Im guessing that it is not much different from the day run in the northern fringe of snow but I honestly can’t be sure of this.
European Model Analysis
This is for Saturday evening and it is very much like the GFS idea where the surface lows that develops along the Carolinas winds up redeveloping again to the east northeast with the ocean low taking over. The upper low track appears left of the GFS but to the right of the NAM. I will have to wait until morning to see more specifics. The bottom graphic is the NAM model with the tracks of the GFS and Canadian shown with the arrows. Judging from the limited maps I am seeing, the global models have an entirely different view than the bullish NAM.
For snow lovers in the northeast, the only remaining hope is that the nam is right, or that something like what happened last Sunday where the global models missed the further west track of that coastal storm and they shift back at the last minute. It appears to be quite the longshot.
Again without seeing what the precip field looks like it is hard for me to determine what it shows regarding snow amounts, precipitation amounts etc. I will update this in the morning. Hard to have a European model analysis without a European model!
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