Blizzard Warning NYC Long Island & Most of New Jersey
BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEW YORK CITY LONG ISLAND AND ALL OF NEW JERSEY SOUTH OF ROUTE 80
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WESTCHESTER COUNTY
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUSSEX COUNTY
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CONNECTICUT SOUTH OF ROUTE 84
My new snow forecast map is up. Based on the overnight runs and now the latest runs of the NAM & GFS which continue to show a decided trend of increasing precipitation further north, plus strong support from the European, I have raised snow amounts and moved Long Island and Southern areas of New York City to 12 inches or more. Note that the lines are not exact (No one can nail those) but you get the idea. Also do notice that the lines remain very very tight so you won’t have to go far to get lower amounts.
The areas to the north and west of New York City remain a huge forecast problem because there is upside surprise possibilities there. The Nam model is the furthest north and most aggressive with 1 foot plus amounts well up to at least route 84 but for now we will stay with these numbers.
Blizzard Warning means heavy snow and strong winds for at least several hours and really doesn’t depend on snow totals being over 1 foot. With srong winds along the coast gusting to 50 mph or more there will be blizzard conditions with zero visibility Saturday into Saturday night.
I will address Coastal Flood Watches in a separate post.
BLIZZARD WARNING SATELLITE & RADAR
Satellite and radar show the storm moving along at a fast clip. The Nam model has snow reaching New York City by this evening which seems a bit fast but it could certainly arrive after midnight. I’m going to watch closely how fast the snow gets into Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania as a tip off for how close the NAM model is. The comma shape on the satellite is very impressive as is the wall of radar echos coming up from the south and now moving into Virginia
Note the squall line of thunderstorms on the radar across the deep south. This is going to be record breaking snow storm for much of the Middle Atlantic region.
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