GFS Model Does What It Does Best
GFS model does what it does best which is to have 3 runs in a row and offer three different solutions, all of which are possible and none of them are probably right. Let’s look at the last 3 runs of the GFS model and see what it has done.
Isn’t it wonderful to have the gfs mode throw out three solutions that go in all different directions and for all different reasons. This is a big problem with this model and that is the lack of consistentcy from run to run. Frankly if you are a winter weather lover and are looking for a snowstorm, this is what you want to see! Printing a snowstorm 200 hours out is not going to happen with regards to this models longer term performance. This is where the more consistent European is where we will pin our focus on later today. Last night’s European model offered this idea.
While we cant show you the map at 204 hours to match it up, I can tell you it had a deep low passing close to the benchmark 40N 70W as it intensifies into a major storm. Today’s European run will be important to see whether it maintains consistency with the prior model run. The Canadian will offer its opinions as well. There are two important things to remember. First is that there is a lot of energy running around and all sorts of solutions are still possible. The second is the North Atlantic Oscillation which is forecast to go negative in a few days. How strongly negative that index is (more blocking) will determine which way this all goes.
Last night’s GFS video analysis.
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