Freezer Door Opens Monday Into Tuesday
As the pattern change process continues we are about to see the first shot of cold air this winter. The freezer door is open for about a day and a half as a deep trough and the polar vortex strengthens in Eastern Canada. This is a pretty impressive shot of cold air coming down and we will see temperatures drop into the teens and single digits Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Now when the cold air arrives Monday late Monday afternoon I think there could be a line of snow showers with the trough as it goes by and it could produce a burst of snow that whitens the ground in some areas. Then temperatures will drop and Tuesday will be the coldest day we have seen in over 10 months with temperatures in many areas not out of the 20s.
Until then we will have some quiet weather over the weekend with clouds and some sunshine today and highs in the low to mid 40s everywhere. Tonight should be clear with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Saturday will be colder with some sunshine and highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. Sunday we should be dry again with sunshine giving way to arriving clouds with highs in the low to mid 40s. Sunday night cold air starts to come in and then we wait for the upper trough described above to bring in the coldest of the cold air Monday night and Tuesday.
Now once the cold air pulls out after Wednesday the freezer door will close for a bit but the refrigerator door will remain open. Wednesday morning temperatures will moderate and then we transition to a stormier pattern. By late next week you can see 3 storms lined up in the southern half of the jet stream
The first one for late next week is offshore and of no consequence but it is evidence of the strong subtropical jet stream sending storms moving along in the new weather pattern that has emerged. The next 2 systems will impact our weather and that will depend on a number of factors including how much blocking is going on at the time. This will determine track and strength. It is the 3rd system that probably has the strongest potential to pose problems in the east. The time frame for that would be around January 11-12.
Here is the overnight GFS model video analysis.
Satellite loop today shows clouds to the south and you can also see clouds in eastern Canada rotate from north to south. This is evidence that the jet stream flow from Canada is beginning to strengthen as the pattern change process continues.
Radars are likely to show increasing lake effect snows developing today as colder air continues to move southward.
Longer term it looks like either the refrigerator door or the freezer door from time to time will be left open.
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