Refrigerator Repair: Joestradamus Says Repairman is Here
Refrigerator repair continued in a big way on the overnight and early morning model runs across the board. The European in particular shows that the Arctic Polar Vortex where the refrigerator door has been kept under lock and key for the last 2 months swings the door open. The polar vortex breakdown begins in a few days and rapidly transforms itself by day 10. The reorganization of the upper atmosphere happens rather fast over the next 2 weeks and all long term signals seem to be lining up. That the European is flashing the strongest signal of the models is particularly interesting as this model is usually very good on the large scale events and less volatile then the other models like the GFS weather model.
Take a look at what the European does with the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO over the next 10 days as we spike over the next 2 and then crash rapidly by the end of the weekend. The the NAO bounces along the bottom of the range staying negative right through January 9th. Afterwards we rely on the Gfs and other ensemble runs which were very interesting.
All the signals across the long range are flashing cold for the eastern United States.
Now we mentioned a few times that the refrigerator repair of the flow across North America was one thing and the storm part is quite another. One of the recent developments of the last few weeks is the increasing frequency of rain events. We have picked up substantial amounts of rain and we are beginning to make a dent in the rainfall deficit. This is an indicator of that strong subtropical jet getting stronger and stronger. As the upper pattern shifts that jet will come into play over time.
You can see the strong subtropical jet bringing in a system into Southern California here while the northern Jet is firmly established from Northern most Canada and the Arctic southward into the east.
Finally Dr Judah Cohen makes this observation on his blog today.
High snow cover and low sea ice this past fall favored a weakening of the polar vortex preferentially in January. Perturbing of the polar vortex is underway and in our opinion, the predicted hemispheric circulation pattern favors further weakening of the polar vortex. Following a weakened polar vortex, the negative phase of the AO, cold temperatures and potentially an increase in snowstorms is favored across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes including the Eastern United States, Europe and East Asia.
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