Weather Pattern Change (Finally) Gets Underway: JOESTRADAMUS
The long awaited weather pattern change forecast finally appears inside the 5 day period and gets underway later this week. Sunday we will have on last gasp of record highs in what turns out to be an historic December which will finish over 11 degrees above normal and will wind up possibly being warmer than the warmest November on record which we just lived through! The departure from normal is so large that January and February will have to average 11 degrees below normal combined in order to get the winter to come out near normal! In other words it is going to take 2 very cold months in order to offset the December warmth.
That being said lets take a look at what the long range models are showing and they are all showing this process beginning later this week as the Scandinavian block begins to build and gradually expand through the next 2 weeks. This cause pressures all across the arctic to rise and displaces cold air gradually southward into the Canada and the United States. The models show enough change at least to take temperatures back to normal across the Eastern US beginning next weekend and carrying through the first part of January.
This is the GEFS Ensemble which is an average look at the upper air pattern in 10 days. This is where we are headed as we move into January. The pressures across the Arctic rise as warm air moves in all across the Arctic region. The polar vortex at the 18000 ft level is displaced southward into Canada. A ridge builds strongly in the west. And the subtropical jet in the Pacific is displaced southward which will probably increase the threat for rain in Southern California which until now has been too far south to benefit from the rains that have been coming in to the Pacific Northwest.
What this means in terms of specifics of course remains to be seen and much will depend on what happens to the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, The Pacific North America Pattern, and the East Pacific Oscillation.
All three of the indicators above are going into winter weather mode for cold in the east. The EPO is negative, the NAO is forecast to trend to neutral, and the PNA is forecast to be strongly positive. If you want cold and possibly snow this is what you want to see. The PNA and EPO are going into their winter modes shortly while the NAO takes longer and may be the last card to fall here. The arctic oscillation is forecast to go negative (cold in the east) around the middle of next week.
Now all that needs to happen is for the process to start and it should begin to start during next week.
Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.
Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitterand you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.
Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is onMy Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!