Snow & Ice Threat For Interior Northeast Next Week?
Weather models this morning are keying in on a storm that is going to produce big snow & ice in the southwest bringing snow & ice to parts of the interior northeast next week. This is the first weather system this month or for that matter this season to even bring snows to anywhere other than northern Maine. It is hard to believe this could even happen considering that tomorrow Christmas Eve is going to see record high temperatures and possibly all time record highs in some places.
All models show a big high building southward from Southern Canada into the Northeast early next week. Both models show a storm ejecting out from the southwest to the Southern Lakes. However there is one huge difference between the European weather model. The GFS weather model is shown below.
The GFS envelopes the high completely around the storm system which can only get so far north before redeveloping to the east. Also the gfs is a full 24 hours faster than the European weather model which pulls the high out to the east which allows the low to track further north. With the European’s idea snowfall would be much more limited. In fact the European would be dry and actually colder here with nothing happening until dayside Tuesday. The gfs would have precipitation here by Monday afternoon!!!
Clearly one of these will be wrong. Timing and speed will be everything and so will the strength of that high to the north. We will defer to later runs to see which model has the right idea. I’m will lean toward the European solution here as it makes more sense, however something has to happen one of these days. Here are the differences in snow outcomes from the 2 models.
Of course just in principal, take the GFS model snow forecast and cut it half to start off with. We will of course zero in on this over the next few days. One thing about the GFS is has been trending further south with every run as it reacts to the strength of the building high. The European has been consistent with its idea of timing and speed. Snow & ice have to happen eventually somewhere in the northeast.
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