Weather Change Imminent?
JOESTRADAMUS should throw in the towel more often like he did 2 days ago. In utter frustration with models flipping up down and sideways, it would be only fitting if since that moment the models have become steadfast in the idea of a pattern shift (I hesitate to use the words pattern change and went with weather change) that at the very least will mean colder weather beginning later next week and lasting past Christmas. Overnight model runs pretty much show this idea with each one indicating their own view of storminess. Here are some observations without getting too hung up on specifics on how the weather change will take place.
- Record high temperatures or near record high temperatures are forecast beginning Friday and lasting into Monday. Highs will be reaching the 60s in most areas depending on cloud cover and sea breeze issues.
- The first of 2 cold fronts arrives on Monday with a good shot for showers and maybe some brief heavy rains from mid morning to early evening.
- Cold front number 2 arrives on Wednesday which will bring temperatures down to near normal
- The subtropical jet stream will remain very active probably through the end of the month.
- The southeast ridge will be flattened for the time being but there is danger that it could still flex its muscles at anytime
- Weather pattern across Canada is changing to allow for more cold air to enter the United States. Whether the cold air is transient or not will depend on blocking.
- Blocking indicators will be trending toward neutral. Arctic Oscillation forecast to go negative later next week (colder in the East).
- The biggest question for me is whether this is a 1 to 2 week break from the longer term ridge east/trough west set up or is it a transition to something new? That is the bigger issue here. Weather change and pattern relaxations happen all the time and the question is whether this one is a relaxation or a true pattern change.
There is enough room here for something to happen in the east late next week but the key to all of this will be what goes on in Eastern Canada. Is the upper low there strong enough to keep the Southeast US ridge from building again. If it isn’t then you will wind up with a storm with a track west. If it is then the other issue would be whether it would wind up getting suppressed south. If you have to bet on anything, it would probably be on the stronger ridge idea. Also the first shot of cold air is marginal so we may only see temperatures back to seasonal. However if the pattern is going to hold this way going forward it stands to reason that each progressive storm in the subtropical jet will bring down colder and colder air masses.
I’ve avoided saying the “s” word but the obvious answer to that question is yes it is possible during this time frame that we finally see the first accumulating snows for someone in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast and of course the interior is favored here. But why don’t we just let those cards play themselves out and let us see where this all goes. Interesting times lie ahead.
My overnight video analysis of the GFS model in case you missed it earlier.
Short range weather outlook is pretty straight forward as we have seen over the last number of days. We are on pace for record highs. A warm front has moved on through and now we begin to see temperatures respond to sunshine and a southwest or west southwest wind over the next several days. We should see highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s today across the entire region from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. The only issue regarding temperatures over the next few days will be wind direction and cloud cover. Otherwise we will continue to see record or near record high temperatures being challenged right into Monday.
No rain is forecast through Sunday night. Monday we will see an approaching cold front with a good chance for showers and some heavier downpours. Monday will be the last day of highs into the 60s before we cool down Tuesday and Wednesday and a second front on Wednesday finally brings temperatures down to near normal by the end of next week.