GFS Weather Model Shows Colder Trend & Storm Threat
Tonight’s run of the gfs weather model was very interesting indeed. Among other things it has picked up on the European day run of a colder look across much of the United States and in particular the northeast which will see temperatures 20 degrees or more above normal with record high temperatures this weekend. One of the keys to this particular run was how the model was going reflect what is happening in Canada and in the Pacific. My earlier post on this discussed the radical differences between the European and the GFS in how next week evolves. The GFS seems to have come more into line with the European’s point of view on this.
From yesterday we have the model maps above and ouy can see the differences in the two. The GFS weather model tonight lines up much better with the European look shown above. My video analysis of the upper air and the surface explains all of this in detail.
As I said on the video that this is extremely early in the game but for cold weather lovers, the developments are encouraging. At least the model seems to be squashing away at the super strong southeast ridge. The ridge does remain there and it is still rather firm so it will have to be watched closely. Still the trend over the last number of days seems to be picking up a little bit of steam here. Whether the pattern we have been in for the last 8 weeks is about to finally break down remains to be seen. This could still be a rather transient look that is setting up. We will of course look at the European from the overnight later today and see what transpires.
Beyond the day 10 time frame if the model is correct it continues with a colder look and there is probably room for another storm threat around or before Christmas though the specifics of this at this point would just wild guessing. The big question beyond day 10 is whether the pattern is truly beginning a transition to something else or is this just a break in the last 8 weeks that lasts for a week or two, only to revert back to the trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern we have been in.