Weather Forecast Model Confusion Continues. This morning I posted my JOESTRADAMUS video with regards to Thursday night’s GFS run and that I found it pretty confusing because it seemed to be doing things that just didn’t seem real to me. Another way to illustrate this is to look at the last 4 runs of the GFS for Day 10 which would be around December 15th. It is very hard to get a sense for what may or may not be happening. I stated that my confidence level was low on last night’s run. Then this afternoon’s run really looked pretty much like nothing was going to really change in the next 2 weeks. Then we have the late afternoon run today which argues for a more blocky look over time. Frankly I remain dubious of anything at this point. Where I continue to focus my attention is the Vortex complex in the Arctic which remains pretty much the same. Where things are different is how strong the ridging is in Eastern Canada and also in the depth of the trough along the west coast. This and the issue of whether blocking could develop is going to be key. The NAO on 2 runs today was forecast to go strongly negative at mid month but we have been down that road before.
The last image in this series is the European which matches up with the GFS for the same time. Look at how different it is from the GFS with a monstrous trough in the west and a powerhouse along and just off the east coast! The model also has a blocky look to it late in the period.
Then in the shorter term we have the European which has its own setup with low pressure early next week missing us and the a second low perhaps threatening late next week. We will deal with that tomorrow. In the end none of this is going to get resolved now so we just keep punting until we get some clarity. Until proven otherwise it is probably best to go along with the idea that it will be more of the same. One other issue with the models is when they show powerhouse lows that are potential game changers like the late pm GFS does, they actually have to happen in order for the atmosphere to reorder itself. I recall last year in December where the European produced a 950MB low in the Great Lakes and showed all sorts of blocking. Guess what…never happened! Also and I have said repeatedly that last December was warmer than normal by several degrees and very little snow fell anywhere during the month. People seem to have forgotten this that the first inch for many areas along the coast didnt happen until early January and then the first real snowfall didnt occur until late in the month. Instead of making proclamations that the winter is over before it started, why not just wait and see how it plays out. It may play out differently than you expect..or it may not. I just don’t see the point in making unequivocal proclamations based on a combination of science and frustration. Just relax and enjoy the weekend and let the weather pattern take care of itself over time. This is a great weekend to just do some outdoor stuff in comfort. Take some time to enjoy. Models will take care of themselves over time. Who knows, maybe Santa has a long range surprise in his big red sack.