Climate Models Long Range Forecast for Winter
We continue to search around for clues for any changes and some appear today on the European run. Again I want to emphasize I’m not sure where this ultimately leads to but it is becoming increasingly apparent that something is going on, at least according to today’s model run. At first glance it appears that not much has changed however upon closer inspection we see some developments in the polar regions that warrant some attention.
What I’m looking at is that from today and over the next 10 days we see a general warming that is occuring near the North Pole. Now bear in mind is not exactly something to jump up and down over if you are a snow lover. The question is whether the the warming and relaxing of the vortexes in the Arctic region is something that is transient. Im getting a sense over the last few days that if something does change, it will be transient nature and not necessarily where the final pattern winds up. That process may take weeks to work through.
Meanwhile we have the late afternoon GFS run which I just looked at is not all that cold as it still has lots of work to do with resolving the arctic issue. Meanwhile today we have a monthly climate model with its prediction for January & Febraury The CanSIPS which is short for The Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (say that 10 times fast) and it has a colder look for January and a near normal February.
Meanwhile we have another climate model forecasting warmer than normal months for January and February
Take them for what they are worth folks. They haven’t exactly hit the ball out of the park in past winters. The CFS model which is the US Climate model tends to go all over the place but it has been consistently calling for warmer than normal conditions this winter.