Long Island Weather: Dry Today, Rain Tuesday & Wednesday
Today on Long Island is shaing up to be a nice day though we will have to keep an eye on clouds that may come in from off the ocean and from the south. The ocean moisture is from an onshore flow. The moisture from the south is ahead of the rain that is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures today will not get much above the mid to upper 40s and then look for temperatures to probably hold at those levels tonight as long as some areas don’t clear out for the first part of the night which is possible in Suffolk County. If that happens cold spots could see temperatures drop some before clouds bring the temperatures back up during the night.
The satellite loop shows a lot of moisture that is moving northeast but the big high off the New England coast at least intially will hold it at bay before giving way later tonight and on Tuesday. I’m thinking the rain holds off until after the Tuesday morning rush hour drive.
It is a bit of a strange set up with a wave developing on a warm front that probably takes one area of rain out to the east later Tuesday evening. Then the cold front comes through on Wednesday. The latest GFS runs want to stall the front out and allow another wave to move along it Wednesday afternoon and evening rather than just clear it out in one swoop.
This might at least give us a little enhancement of the total rainfalls. Im still thinking on the order of 1/2 inch to an inch total for Long Island which is pretty much in line with what is being forecast. Heavier rains will probably fall south and west of us. The Nam weather forecast model is pretty aggressive with 2 inches plus total being indicated however we will lean to the conservative side on this.
Temperatures should struggle on Tuesday depending on the wind so I’m thinking upper 40s to low 50s and we should be into the 50s on Wednesday for a little while until the front passes and then the wave goes by. Once it passes skies should clear out nicely on Thursday.