Cold To Start Monday, Rain Tuesday & Wednesday
2 air masses are battling right now as cold dry air pushes down from the northeast and warm moist air pushes up from the southwest. The cold is short lived as temperatures Monday recover from the lows but clouds developing and a raw northeast to east wind will keep temperatures pretty much in the 40s for highs. The question for Monday night into Tuesday morning is whether the bottom part of the atmosphere will saturate enough to allow rain to develop. My thinking is that we could see some rain sneak in late Monday night but the steadier rain holds off until the daytime Tuesday. The weather system responsible for this will head from the Gulf States to the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front that moves through here during Wednesday.
It is a bit of a strange set up with a wave developing on a warm front that probably takes one area of rain out to the east later Tuesday evening. Then the cold front comes through on Wednesday. The latest GFS runs want to stall the front out and allow another wave to move along it Wednesday afternoon and evening rather than just clear it out in one swoop.
This might at least give us a little enhancement of the total rainfalls. Im still thinking on the order of 1/2 inch to an inch total which is pretty much in line with what is being forecast. Heavier rains will probably fall south and west of us. Temperatures should struggle on Tuesday depending on the wind so I’m thinking upper 40s to low 50s and we should be into the 50s on Wednesday for a little while until the front passes and then the wave goes by. Once it passes skies should clear out nicely on Thursday.