Weather Forecasting Models Continue to Show Forecast Headache Next Week
Overnight weather model runs were all pretty consistent with regards to the pattern for next week. All three weather forecasting models show a split flow. All three resolve this by taking a storm across the US to the east. The Canadian is slowest and furthest northwest with the European coldest and the model that is further south than the other 2. The key to all of this as we have been saying for the last several days will be whether the 2 jet streams in the split flow can create that delicate balance between them where the northern jet is strong enough to keep cold air nearby while at the same time not too strong, otherwise the southern jet dominates and the system produces mostly rain. My video this morning explains this.
What I am hoping for in these weather videos I am doing is that you are developing a better sense of how things really work both from the weather standpoint and from the forecasting standpoint. This is not an easy thing to figure out sometimes. In this particular set up the easy part was to work out the pattern which we were able to do well over a week or so ago with the split flow.
Now comes the hard part in dealing with how the split is going to work. Given that we are more than a week away we are still very much in “clown” land with regards to specific maps so I won’t bother to post those now. I’m sure somebody somewhere is going to show the European snow map from last night. Yes it has snow for much of Southern New England to New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania. But those maps really aren’t very useful at this point. The dayside run of models begins shortly.